Root Cause Analysis: Lean Muppets Series Post 6

Bert Takes an Intellectual Short Cut and Winds Up Lost.

Solutions require experiments. Ernie wants to eat cookies in bed, but when crumbs become problematic he needs to find a solution.Bert was attempting the management role of problem solver. Bert could see the whole problem as well as the (obvious) solution, but was clearly missing the mark on his problem solving approach.Bert's first problem was allowing Ernie to engage in fundamental attribution error. Fundamental attribution error is when we personify a problem. By focusing on Ernie eating cookies and the crumbs getting in Ernie's pajamas, the solution domain became Ernie himself.The second problem with Bert's approach was that his application of the Socratic method was inconsistent. The structure is fairly simple: continue to ask "Why?" until assumptions are stripped away. So it's great when Bert asks, "What are you doing with those cookies in bed, huh?" But then he starts to lead Ernie through Bert's personal logic trail, and Ernie understands merely what Bert said about this particular application, not the underlying system.Ernie and Bert as well may have taken on Toyota's Five Whys. Bert approaches Ernie with a problem he noticed - as well as a potential solution - but Ernie needs to understand the problem's context and make sure the solution actually addresses the root cause. So when Bert said that Ernie should not eat cookies in bed, then we could have had this progression:Bert: Ernie, I believe we should have an official policy placing a moratorium on all biscuit-style baked goods in sleeping areas.Ernie: Why is that, Bert? (Why One)Bert: Because people aren't getting enough sleep.Ernie: Why is that, Bert? (Why Two)Bert: Because people are getting itchy.Ernie: Why is that, Bert?  (Why Three)Bert: Because there are crumbs in their pajamas.Ernie: Why is that, Bert? (Why Four)Bert: Ernie! Can't you see the logic here?Ernie: Just humor me Bert. Taiichi Ohno said, "Ask why five times in every endeavor." I'm just being lean.Bert: (sighs) Okay, because there was crumbs in the sheets.Ernie: Ahh! This makes sense, Bert! Why are there crumbs in the sheets? (Why Five)Bert: BECAUSE YOU'RE EATING COOKIES IN BED!!!! THAT'S WHAT I'VE BEEN TELLING YOU!!!!!Ernie: Yes, this makes sense Bert. But it's not just me. I see there's a system here that when one eats cookies in bed, one gets crumbs first in the sheets, then into their pajamas, and then they itch and can't get to sleep.Bert: Good, now that that's all understood, can we stop eating cookies in bed?Ernie: Are you kidding? Eating cookies in bed is my only perk working here! Perhaps we can all wear wetsuits to bed instead, that should keep the crumbs out.Bert: (sighs again)When we approach any problem, understanding how to frame it and investigate root causes is vital for finding a real solution...or a silly one.This is sixth in a series of Lean Muppet Posts: For a list of Lean Muppet posts and an explanation of why we did this, look here -> Lean Muppets Introduction 

You're In My System: Lean Muppets Post 5

Gonk and Geefle Build a Collaborative System

Petri Net For Geefle and Gonk

This one might seem a little blatant, but Geefle and Gonk are doing more than simply dividing labor - they are systems thinking in action.Initially, the system is every Snooian for himself.  The trees provide fruit and feeding  should be a solo endeavor.Unfortunately for Geefle and Gonk though, Darwin apparently skipped Snoo. But they've somehow managed to develop shared but spacey verbal language without ever having actually eaten. (This could easily be one of the least defensible Muppet sketches for the Continuity Director.)So they set up a multi-part system that requires Geefle (the tall French/Welsh character with frozen elbows) to harvest the fruit, and then for Gonk (the short, enabling and emotive Italian character) to feed the fruit to both of them. Luckily for them, nectarines are excellent sources of calcium, potassium, magnesium, and vitamin C - and they have a bit more protein than the average fruit.One can see a clear value stream emerging: fruit grows on the tree and enters the backlog. When Geefle and Gonk are hungry, Geefle picks the fruit, then bounces it off of Gonk's head. Gonk responds with a "gonk," and then feeds the fruit to Geefle and if he's hungry, takes some for himself.A petri net for the Snooian System would look like this:This chart shows that only when fruit exists and Geefle and Gonk are both hungry does the feeding system activate. We can then dispatch Geefle to pick the fruit, when he has the fruit he can throw it to Gonk, who then can feed himself and Geefle.But the system has a bit more complexity that the normal Personal Kanban; it's not quite linear. Three conditions must be met before the work can begin to flow. If there are no nectarines, work cannot commence because there is no fruit to pick. If Gonk is not hungry, then he'll be off playing Snoo-ker and not be anywhere near the tree. If Geefle isn't hungry, he's also unlikely to be available. (Remember, these guys just invented cooperation - they're not even close to being ready for altruism.)And it might turn into a Personal Kanban like this. As Geefle and Gonk celebrate the success of this system, they appreciate that each others performance is contingent on the system. So in the current hunter/gatherer state of Snoo, nectarines come when they want. However, the video implies that there is only one nectarine tree on the entire planet. If we ignore the obvious issues of one specimen from each race and you know...reproduction, this means that Geefle and Gonk are going to need to become skilled at husbanding an orchard, which requires an expansion of their value stream.Which means expansion of their system.Likewise, this means that Geefle cannot be blamed for lack of harvesting if the nectarine tree is bare. Until the value stream expands in some way to control the supply of nectarines, interruptions in service are in no way Geefle-centric.This is fifth in a series of Lean Muppet posts. For a list of Lean Muppet posts and an explanation of why we did this, look here -> Lean Muppets Introduction.

The Language of Metrics: Lean Muppets Series Post 4

It’s like a really heavy iPhone.

muppet brrrring scale

Silly aliens!In business, we mistake inanimate objects for our customers, our employees, our teams, and everyone else. Our inanimate objects are metrics. Just like the telephone, they are things we make to convey information, but we make a key mistake: we believe that metrics are in some way arbiters of reality.But just as we are what we eat, we become what we measure.The aliens here are vice presidents coming down to talk to the workers.They descend in their ship and approach the area in which their intelligence tells us the workers reside.In lean parlance, they are going to the gemba.Now, here's the really funny bit: the telephone really isn't the metric. The worker is the worker.These are workers who have been supplying management with meaningless statistics that measure output on a dual axised BRRRRRRRING scale. The longer and louder the BRRRRRRRING the better.The managers approach the worker who, after getting three consecutive raises for BRRRRINGing like there's no tomorrow, is on the fast track to becoming an alien.  That worker, after a time, does everything to satisfy the metric - to the point that it becomes the only way he can conceive of doing his job.Initially, the managers approach the worker and try to discuss things in English, then hunt around for other languages, only to learn that BRRRRING is all anyone can say.And the scary part is the end, where they are happily BRRRINGing along with the employee, because now it's the only thing the company can say.In his 14 Points, Deming said "Eliminate management by numbers and numerical goals. Instead substitute with leadership."  The more we rely on metrics to tell us what happened, the more we distance ourselves from the actual work being done. We lose sight of changes in context and cannot deftly react when necessary. Further, we build games and systems that reward paying attention to the metric and not the success of the company.People will care about what the system cares about. If your company has reams of reports generated daily or weekly, you are not "managing by the number" you are building a culture of BRRRRRRING.This is fourth in a series of Lean Muppet posts. For a list of Lean Muppet posts and an explanation of why we did this, look here. -> Lean Muppets Introduction

Sunk Cost, Loss Aversion, and Cannibalism: Lean Muppet Series Post 3

After losing an “I” and his tie, this New York baker is ready for Cookie to leave.

I cannot count the number of times I, as a consultant, have been called in to diagnose an obvious problem.Cookie Monster...now he has an obvious problem.While we would all like to see many of our current television hosts eaten by monsters, it's clear to even little kids that Cookie Monster would be better served by eating pie than Guy Smiley.Pie is the optimal solution. But at least as far as we see, Cookie Monster has chosen Smileycide as the solution to his problem, and is committed to it.We often identify a solution, create a plan, then commit to a number of actions to achieve that plan. With each action we take, alternatives psychologically become more unpallatable.You can see in the future, Cookie Monster catching up and actually eating Guy Smiley and then saying, "Hmmmm, me no like eat Guy Smiley after all." But each time Cookie Monster chases Guy, he finds that he's invested more of his time and energy into Project EatGuy and is less likely to stop.Psychologists and economists call this the "sunk cost fallacy," and even though every MBA student in the world learns about it, we still see it happen.In lean manufacturing this is a specific type of waste called "muda," work that we do that adds no value.  In this case, chasing something considered inedible is not going to result in a delicious snack.But I'd like to focus on a different lesson - one more fudamental that, if we strive to solve it, we'll eliminate muda anyway.Lean teaches us to avoid inventory. Inventory is the stuff we create, are in the process of creating, or are the parts for the things we anticipate creating.I remember in 1979 my father was involved in creating a business incubator in our hometown called Triangle East. It was in the abandoned Geer Mobile Home plant. All my father's projects were family projects and so at one point I found myself going through the old plant cleaning up. The was inventory everywhere - desks, chairs, doors, bolts, and so forth. Tons of inventory that we either recycled (such that we could in 1979), threw away, or served as fascination for a 14 year old boy. All of it constituted waste because it would never be used to biuld a mobile home.In knowledge work we build up conceptual tons of inventory. Reports, files, software code, policies, processes, procedures, half explored ideas, concurrent tasks... all these things decrease our ability to complete work or to ship products.But the more conceptual inventory we create, the more sunk costs we perceive. The more sunk costs there are, the less likely we are to improve. Psychologists call this tendency "loss aversion."We can illustrate this idea with this ridiculous equation:

Y = Cookie Monster's hungerG = the perceived value of eating Guy SmileyCx = the number of times Cookie Monster chases Guy around the counter

Cx * Y = G

Note that while the actual value of eating Guy Smiley will be zero, the perceived value of eating him increases with every iteration.What's worse is that if Cookie's goal is partially achieved, he is unlikely to learn from it, but will actually become more entrenched. So, say he catches Guy Smiley and eats an arm (who knew the Muppets could be so dark?), he will work harder because loss aversion is telling him "you missed the tasty part."Our stakes may be higher in the non-felt world, but the scenarios are no less ridiculous. Pets.com is the classic example where free shipping of discounted cat litter attracted tens of millions in VC money and much more at IPO. Anyone not caught up in dot com fever could see that building a business model around shipping bags of clay (maybe the only thing worse would be bags of lead) was not likely to produce profits.Another quick point here is that while Cookie Monster was never the brightest bulb in the Muppet marquee, he was and remains a nice guy. By nature he does not cannibalize other muppets. He had simply bought into an idea and found himself in a sunk cost spiral.Always look for the pie.This is third in a series of Lean Muppet Posts: For a list of Lean Muppet posts and an explanation of why we did this... look here -> Lean Muppets Introduction

Failure Demand and Unthoughtful Production: Lean Muppet Series Post 2

The Ernie Production Unit and the Bert Client Clash Over Delivered Value

simon marcus

Ernie and Bert have issues. Because Ernie and Bert are archetypes. They represent the Yin and Yang of the Human condition.It is reasonable to expect that anyone reading this is human.In this video, Ernie is a standard production unit. At times he is painting (development), other times he is reassuring Bert that the product will be done on time and to spec (product manager or sales), at one point he presents the finished product for use (installation or delivery).Bert goes through some stages in his position as the customer: thanking Ernie for his services, then becoming antsy when the schedule might overrun, then frustrated when the product is defective.As Bert goes through these stages, he places pressure on the production unit. When the delivery of the defective unit is made however, the customer's understandably righteous indignation  "ERNIE! THAT DOESN'T LOOK ANYTHING LIKE ME!!!!"  is met with surprise by production "It doesn't, Bert?"Development built a product for their idea of Bert, and not the actual Bert. "I must say that it looks exactly like you Bert, I did a fantastic job," Ernie says on delivery.(Apparently, they thought Bert was my good friend Simon Marcus...who looks a lot like the picture on the right).Not showing the product to the client while it was in production coupled with the high cost of change leads to the only conclusion - production must physically change the client to conform to the product. In this case, turning Bert the Muppet into Simon the COO.This radical alteration of Bert is funny and it even makes adults laugh, but we do it all the time in business. We give people what they don't want and then we spend money in support or training or advertising to counteract our shoddy or unthoughtful work. This is what John Seddon calls "failure demand" - the spending of resources we engage in to make up for the failures we build in to our own products.When we build shoddy or unthoughtful products, they cost us - in money, time, and consumer good will.